'City killer': should we fear an asteroid that could arrive in 2032?

The chances are really small, but astronomers are closely watching the object - because with a diameter of about 40-90 metres, it could cause serious damage to the city, similar to the disaster in the Tunguska area in 1908, according to Phys.org.

Parameters and possible consequences

• Size: 130 to 300 feet (about 40-90 metres).
• Approach date: 22 December 2032, according to NASA's latest estimates.
• Potential impact regions: over the eastern Pacific Ocean, near South America, over the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
• Destruction mechanism: likely to be an airburst without cratering. Scientists estimate that the force of such a detonation could reach 8 megatons - more than 500 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

Chances of collision and known analogues

To date, calculations indicate a probability of about 1.6 per cent. According to Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, this figure can be expected to be adjusted with additional observations. A similar situation was already in 2004 with the asteroid Apophis: initially it was attributed to 2.7 per cent chance of collision, but as the orbit was refined, the risk was reduced to zero.

Meanwhile, asteroid 2024 YR4 is classified as an "urban killer" because of its potential destructive power. They recall the famous Tunguska phenomenon of 1908, when a 30-50m space body exploded over Siberia and felled trees over an area of about 2,000 square kilometres.

Defence measures and astroplanning

If the threat persists, humanity will have several years to react. In 2022, NASA successfully tested a "kinetic strike" strategy as part of the DART mission, when a spacecraft was able to change the orbit of an innocuous asteroid. Other approaches are also possible: from the use of powerful lasers that vaporise part of the surface, to a "gravity tractor" - a massive space probe that "pulls" the dangerous object.

However, the very fact that asteroid 2024 YR4 has appeared demonstrates how important early detection and planning is. Astronomers around the world are already working with coordinators from NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) to collect and analyse data to assess the risk as accurately as possible.

How much should we be worried?

According to Kelly Fast (Kelly Fast), acting responsible for planetary defence at NASA, experts do not yet see any reason to panic. Rather, they face a professional challenge to clarify the orbit and develop, if necessary, a scenario for intervention. In the worst case, if the impact cannot be avoided, the authorities will have time for possible evacuation or minimisation of damage in the risk zone.