Casualty rate forces Russia to announce new mobilisation
The programme for lump-sum cash payments to contractors has started to "bog down". The number of those wishing to do so has significantly decreased.
Russia may announce a new wave of mobilisation by the end of 2024 to make up for losses on the frontline. The current level of casualties has reached the highest levels since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Many regional authorities are failing to meet their conscription quotas despite increased payments.
At the same time, it is worth noting the beginning of a propaganda campaign in Russia regarding the participation of conscripts in the war.
The idea has already been voiced on several TV channels. Initially it was only about "defence and border protection", which is what the army is designed for. Then they recalled the Afghan and Chechen wars, where conscripts really fought.
Thus, there is a possibility that conscripts will be sent to the front under one guise or another. Already now the authorities are telling relatives of dead conscripts that they signed a contract just a few weeks before their deaths.
At the same time, the recruitment of conscripts may cost the Russian authorities "dearly"
On the one hand, the amount of lump-sum payments to conscripts varies from region to region, and in Moscow it reaches $50,000, which significantly hits the Russian budget. Besides, even these payments do not help to recruit a sufficient number of those willing to die in Ukraine. At the same time, conscripts are much cheaper, they are active servicemen and have to "defend the Motherland", i.e. they do not have to pay anything.
On the other hand, the negative attitude to the two previous wars - Afghanistan and Chechnya - was due to the participation and deaths of conscripts in them.
For example, in Afghanistan the Soviet army lost about 10 thousand people, which caused a huge outrage among the population. Now Russia's losses have exceeded half a million, but there is no similar outrage in the country.
This can be explained by the fact that the deaths of conscripts concern a wide range of people, primarily parents. Now it is the contract servicemen who die, who voluntarily agreed to this risk.
In the spring of 2023, the Russian authorities passed a law allowing to conclude a contract with the army immediately after the 11th grade.