After temporary defences: how the EU and Ukraine can avoid chaos in 2027

There is already consensus in member states on the end point of temporary protection, and states should prepare policies to help people either return to Ukraine or switch to other types of residence permits.

The problem is that in many countries the transitional rules are still not defined - and this uncertainty affects people's plans.

What the survey data say: some have already "transitioned", but most are dependent

About 20% of Ukrainian refugees are no longer on temporary protection - that's about 870,000 people, according to a survey by the Centre for Economic Strategy.

But 80% are still dependent on the current status.

If temporary protection is cancelled and people cannot get another legal status, many will consider different ways to "get a foothold" - in the same country or in another; sometimes even the option of illegal stay is heard.

In parallel, 1.2 million people in such a scenario will consider returning to Ukraine, some of them only temporarily, in order to leave again.

What "working models" are already visible in the EU

The representative of the European Commission emphasised in the discussion at the presentation of the study: a coordinated approach at the EU level is possible, but not "common rules", because politicians remain national.

Therefore, the models are different. Some states are developing a "single entry" for Ukrainians - a simplified transition to other permits; Poland and the Netherlands were mentioned as examples.

In other countries the rules are stricter: the discussion mentioned the Czech Republic and high income thresholds, because of which some people think about moving to other states.

She also talked about the recommendations that came out in September 2025 - that countries should start the transition before the end of temporary protection, because the administrative burden will be heavy.

The conversation bluntly stated that there is still "one year" to close the gaps.

What Ukraine can do: solutions not "after" but "before"

The researchers suggest not waiting, but co-operating with EU countries in preparing transitional policies.

One specific direction is circular migration arrangements so that people can come to Ukraine and return to the EU without fear of losing the right to reside or work.

Another is support for remote working with Ukraine for those who physically remain in Europe.

A separate block is protection of the vulnerable: the study says that there are groups who are significantly dependent on payments and may not go through the standard routes to legalisation through work/training; if they lose status, their standard of living may deteriorate, so social guarantees are needed.

A few more "down-to-earth" tools that the researchers mentioned are intergovernmental agreements on crediting work experience gained abroad; job search and requalification programmes; housing solutions (compensation, rental support), and better transport links to Ukraine for people who want to live "two countries away".

Why the "stay illegally" scenario is dangerous

The European Commission has sounded a blunt warning: staying illegally can have personal consequences - up to a 5-year entry ban- and mass attempts to "just stay" can politically undermine Ukraine's EU accession trajectory.

The constraints on these decisions are severe: if the war continues into March 2027, even the best procedures will not allay people's key fears.

But there is a window of opportunity: if countries manage to make the transitional rules clear and accessible, fewer people will find themselves in chaotic scenarios of "finding a country that will accept" or temporary return followed by re-migration.