2025 ranks among the three hottest years on record - scientists

the year 2025 has become one of the three warmest years on record, with the average global temperature over the past three years exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement for the first time. This is stated in a new analysis by the international group World Weather Attribution (WWA).

Scientists emphasise that the key reason for the record heat wave remains human activity, especially the continued burning of coal, oil and gas, despite the presence of a natural cooling factor - the La Niña phenomenon.

The Paris threshold has been passed for the first time

The 2015 Paris Agreement called for global warming to be contained to within 1.5 °C of pre-industrial levels. Exceeding that threshold significantly increases the risk of deadly weather events and widespread destruction of ecosystems, researchers said.

"If we don't stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible, it will be extremely difficult to keep warming at bay," said Imperial College London climatologist and WWA co-founder Friederike Otto.

Extreme weather has become the norm

The analysis covers a year marked by massive climate disasters around the world. WWA experts identified 157 extreme weather events that met the criteria for high risk, ranging from hundreds of deaths to the declaration of a state of emergency. Of these, 22 cases have been studied in detail.

The deadliest events in 2025 were heat waves. Scientists estimate that some of them have become 10 times more likely than a decade ago, solely because of climate change.

"Such heat waves have become commonplace today, but without man-made climate change they would have been virtually impossible," Otto emphasised.

Fires, floods and hurricanes

Prolonged droughts contributed to widespread forest fires in Greece and Turkey. In Mexico, heavy rains and floods claimed dozens of lives. Super typhoon Fung Wong forced more than a million people to flee their homes in the Philippines. In India, monsoon rains caused devastating landslides and floods.

The report focuses on the notion of "adaptation limits" - the point at which even sophisticated warning and response systems can no longer cope. Hurricane Melissa is cited as an example, which intensified so quickly that authorities did not have time to prepare. Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti suffered enormous losses.

Climate policy is stalling

The UN climate talks held in Brazil in November 2025 ended without a clear plan to divest from fossil fuels. While funding for adaptation has been increased, its implementation will take years.

Meanwhile, countries are moving in different directions:

• China is actively developing solar and wind power, but continues to invest in coal.
• In Europe, extreme weather is intensifying calls for climate action, but some countries fear an economic slowdown.
• In the US, Donald Trump's administration has pivoted to support oil, gas and coal, curtailing many clean energy initiatives.

"The geopolitical climate right now is extremely unfavourable - too many politicians are acting in the interests of the fuel industry rather than their citizens," Otto noted.

Scientists: progress is being made, but not enough

Experts agree that exceeding the 1.5 °C mark has already happened, but a partial reversal of the trend is still possible. This requires earlier warning systems, new response strategies and an accelerated energy transition.

"We're already seeing disasters where we haven't seen them before, and they're developing faster and more complex," said Columbia University climatologist Andrew Kruczkiewicz. - "There is progress, but it's clearly not enough."