100,000 net outings in the autumn: what happened after the borders opened up for 18-22 year old men

But a study by the Centre for Economic Strategy explains the logic differently: the decision was meant to reduce the departure of schoolchildren under 18, so that parents would not take teenagers out in advance - "just in case".

In other words, the authorities were trying to redirect the flow: instead of chaotic departure of 14-17-year-olds, they were trying to make the departure of students more controlled.

First figures: the overall outflow has become smaller

The Border Agency estimates that net departures across western borders (i.e. 'outbound minus return') have fallen:

• 2024 - 460,000.

• 2025 - 300 thousand.

People continue to leave, but the rate is declining, even though the rules have become more lenient for the 18-22 group.

Why counting 18-22 accurately is difficult

The researchers wanted to estimate exactly the 18-22 group, but encountered a problem: according to them, the Ukrainian Border Guard Service does not publish statistics on age and gender. Therefore, they had to use data from the border services of neighbouring countries.

This is an important point: when there are no clear statistics, it is difficult to objectively assess any decision and explain it to people in a normal way.

What we got according to the data of our neighbours

From August (when the borders were opened) to November 2025, net departures of men 18-22 were about 100 thousand.

The researchers note:

• that's about a third of all net departures in a year across the western borders;

• that's "about onein seven" men in that age group;

• and not everyone left: the surge peaked in the first month, then slowed.

What about the main target - teenagers 14-17?

So far, this is more of a first signal than a bottom line. According to the number of temporary protection statuses that Ukrainian children 14-17 years old receive, after September 2025, there are indeed fewer of them.

But the authors of the study warn: the main departures of schoolchildren usually occur in the summer, after the end of the school year. Therefore, a full assessment can be made not earlier than next year, especially on the basis of the results of the summer period.

Limitation

Even if the departure of schoolchildren decreases, it does not mean that young people will automatically "stay at home". Decisions are influenced by safety, learning, work and confidence in the future.

But the approach itself shows how policy can be built on data: map the problem, apply the tool, measure the first results, and don't draw premature conclusions while the key test is still ahead.