The next 7–8 months will be critical: Tusk warned that Russia is preparing for an escalation

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that Russia is making serious preparations to escalate tensions both in the war against Ukraine and in the region as a whole. According to him, autumn and winter could prove decisive, and the next seven to eight months will be a critical period for security. Tusk made these remarks during a meeting with participants at the Campus Polska Przyszłości forum in Olsztyn, reports RFM24 .

According to the Polish Prime Minister, Warsaw maintains constant contact with the leadership of the CIA and was not taken by surprise by the recent visit to Moscow by the agency’s director, John Ratcliffe.

“We were also warned of the need for urgent talks on this issue at the highest possible Polish-American level,” said Tusk.

He noted that some information relating to security matters must remain confidential. However, in his view, this does not mean that the public should be deprived of information about the most serious threats.

Russia may be preparing for a new escalation

Tusk stated that in recent weeks there have been increasing public signs that Russia is preparing to further escalate tensions.

“It is clear that Russia is preparing very seriously for an escalation of tensions – both in the war with Ukraine and across the entire region – and that this autumn and winter will be crucial for Russia,” said the Polish Prime Minister.

According to him, European countries must be prepared for various scenarios.

“We must be prepared for various possible developments, and the next seven to eight months will certainly be critical,” emphasised Tusk.

The Prime Minister also stated that, according to estimates by various intelligence agencies, Russia may be preparing to mobilise around 600,000 military personnel. He noted that mobilisation on such a scale would be a massive undertaking for the Russian economy, and suggested that such forces would not be being prepared for peaceful purposes.

Poland is monitoring threats from Russia

Tusk had previously spoken of the need to prepare for possible Russian provocations against NATO countries. On 29 August, following a conversation with the Alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte, the Polish Prime Minister wrote that a Russian provocation against one of the NATO member states could not be ruled out, and emphasised the need to be prepared for various scenarios.

At the same time, Tusk noted that Russia’s war against Ukraine is at a turning point: the situation on the battlefield could change rapidly, and the risk assessment also remains unstable.

Against this backdrop, Poland and the Baltic states are stepping up the protection of critical infrastructure, including energy and gas facilities. The region is also assessing the risks of possible Russian provocations under a false flag.