If Russia mobilises another 300,000: 72.8% of Ukrainians expect things to get worse

If Russia mobilises another 300,000 people in 2026, 72.8% of Ukrainians surveyed expect Ukraine's position to worsen. This is respondents' assessment of a stated scenario, not a forecast of how the war will actually unfold.

The details

40.1% of participants believe such a mobilisation would substantially worsen Ukraine's position, and a further 32.7% expect a slight worsening — 72.8% in total.

17.7% believe an additional Russian call-up would change nothing. Only 1.3% expect Ukraine's position to improve: 0.6% slightly and 0.7% substantially. Another 8.1% were undecided.

The published shares add up to 99.9% — the one-tenth of a percentage point discrepancy is due to rounding.

The question itself draws on a scenario discussed in late August. Ukrainian intelligence bodies reported a possible recruitment of 300,000 people in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027. That was a stated Ukrainian intelligence assessment, not confirmation that such a call-up has already taken place.

Why it matters

The result shows the perception of military risk: most respondents see additional reinforcement of the Russian army as an unfavourable factor for Ukraine.

A public opinion poll, however, does not model the actual combat readiness of those mobilised, training times, equipment supply or losses. The 72.8% should therefore be read as the expectation of those surveyed, not as an objective assessment of how the front line will change.

Source

Active Group, published on 31 August 2026. Study: "Pulse of the Week: 24–28 August 2026".

The survey was carried out by Active Group using the SunFlower Sociology online panel. Method — self-completed questionnaires by citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and over. Sample — 1,000 questionnaires, representative by age, sex and region of Ukraine. Data collected on 29 August 2026. The stated theoretical margin of error at a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 3.1%.