Former Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kondratyuk: Putin is no longer capable of invading Ukraine, but cannot bring himself to admit it

Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer capable of invading Ukraine, yet he cannot admit that this objective has failed, according to Valery Kondratyuk, former head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate and Foreign Intelligence Service. He made this statement in an in-depth interview with UP, published on 28 September.

Why Russia might agree to a ceasefire

According to Kondratyuk, Ukraine’s position on the battlefield is no longer the main factor capable of changing Putin’s decision. He believes that a deterioration in the domestic situation in Russia would be more significant for the Kremlin.

The former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) suggests that, at a certain point, Moscow might agree not to a full-fledged peace agreement, but to a ceasefire or a freeze on the war.

At the same time, Kondratyuk suggests that the Russian leadership might view a pause in hostilities as an opportunity to wait for political changes in Ukraine. This is his analytical assessment, not a confirmed plan by the Kremlin.

In early September, however, Reuters sources reported that Putin still expects to establish full control over the Donbas by the end of 2026. SocPortal had previously reported on this.

Kondratyuk believes that pressure from within Russia could prove decisive

The former intelligence officer believes that military operations are creating the conditions for a political outcome, but the final denouement may take place within Russia itself.

He also asserts that Putin’s inner circle is currently more united around the preservation of power and assets than divided into rival ‘Kremlin factions’. These conclusions are based on Kondratyuk’s assessment and have not been publicly corroborated by independent data.

Kondratyuk also stated that, in his view, the personal risks facing the Russian president are increasing, pointing to the tightening of his security measures. However, conclusions regarding the reasons for these measures and Putin’s personal fears are an interpretation by the UP’s interviewee.

Trump has leverage over the Kremlin — Kondratyuk’s view

The former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate cites the US stance as another factor.

Kondratyuk believes that Washington is capable of increasing pressure on Moscow through sanctions whilst simultaneously expanding military support for Ukraine. He specifically highlighted the transfer of long-range weaponry technology to Ukraine and the further development of Ukraine’s own strike systems as promising avenues.

In his view, the aim is to make continuing the war too costly for Russia and thereby change its negotiating position.

What Kondratyuk said about the negotiations

Kondratyuk maintains that part of the negotiation process traditionally takes place behind closed doors, rather than in public, through various diplomatic and intelligence channels. There, he says, potential compromises and the reactions of the parties can be tested.

He considers the key challenge for any future agreement to be not only reaching agreements, but also establishing a mechanism that would make breaching them too costly for the party in breach.

This coincides with the ongoing public debate on a ceasefire. On 26 September, the Head of the President’s Office, Kirill Budanov, stated that Ukraine was ready for an immediate ceasefire, whilst Russia, he said, had not yet accepted it. SocPortal reported on this. Budanov has headed the Office of the President since January 2026, as confirmed by the Office’s official website.

What he said about Budanov

A separate section of the interview is devoted to Kirill Budanov, who previously headed the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and is now the head of the President’s Office.

Kondratyuk believes that one of Budanov’s tasks in his new role is to provide the President with alternative – and, where necessary, unwelcome – information about the true state of affairs. This is Kondratyuk’s characterisation of Budanov’s role, rather than an officially defined function of the head of the President’s Office.

Vladimir Zelenskyy himself, when appointing Budanov on 2 January, publicly stated that his experience should be utilised primarily in matters of security and the negotiation process.

Why this is important

Kondratyuk’s interview sheds light on one of the assessments circulating within Ukrainian expert and intelligence circles regarding the future course of the war: whilst Russia has not yet succeeded in the military conquest of the whole of Ukraine, this in itself does not mean that the Kremlin is prepared to cease hostilities.

That said, it is important not to confuse the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate’s statements with intelligence reports or the state’s official position. A significant portion of his remarks consist of analytical assessments and predictions regarding Putin, the Russian leadership and the possible logic behind negotiations.

Publicly, Moscow continues to assert its territorial claims, whilst the Ukrainian leadership speaks of its readiness for a ceasefire. Therefore, the main practical question remains not whether the Kremlin will recognise the impossibility of its original objectives, but whether conditions will arise under which the parties will in fact move towards a sustainable cessation of hostilities.

Source

UP · OP