El Niño will change the winter in Europe: what to expect from the weather in 2026–2027

The winter of 2026–2027 in Europe may see little snow. Initial long-term forecasts point to a shortage of snow in most regions of the continent, whilst the best conditions for snow cover are expected in the mountains, as well as in the north and north-east of Europe. This is due to the influence of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is developing in the Pacific Ocean.

According to Stiripesurse, climatologists have assessed the latest developments related to this phenomenon and compared data from global long-range forecasting systems with historical observations.

Where snowfall may be lower

According to this assessment, snowfall this winter may be below the long-term average across much of Europe. The exceptions are likely to be high-altitude areas, primarily the Alps, as well as the colder regions in the north and north-east of the continent.

For ski resorts, altitude and geographical location may be particularly important factors. At altitudes above 1,800–2,000 metres, conditions may remain favourable enough for a stable snow cover to form.

In lowland and mid-altitude areas, the situation may be less favourable. The expected prevalence of mild Atlantic air masses is likely to bring precipitation, but at the same time raise temperatures, meaning that snow will fall less frequently or melt more quickly.

What December might be like

December is likely to be relatively snow-free in most of Europe’s lowland areas. However , the far north of the continent may prove to be an exception.

One possible factor is westerly and south-westerly air flows. These bring precipitation but are accompanied by relatively mild air. As a result, precipitation in some regions may not fall as snow.

What to expect in January

In January, according to this assessment, no significant change in the weather pattern is expected. A high-pressure system may persist over southern Europe, whilst a westerly air circulation will continue to influence most of the continent. In some regions, this may be accompanied by temperatures above the climatic norm.

At the same time, northern regions will be in a more favourable position in terms of snowfall.

February could be the month with the least snow

The most pronounced snow deficit is forecast for February. Although this month is usually among the snowiest in Europe, the prolonged persistence of a high-pressure system could lead to the opposite scenario.

The snow deficit may be particularly noticeable in central, western, north-western and southern Europe. At the same time, the north and north-east of the continent may retain more favourable conditions for snowfall.

El Niño does not mean a lack of snow

Experts are, however, urging people not to take the long-term forecast too literally. The phrase ‘below-average snowfall’ does not mean that there will be no snow at all in Europe. It refers to the likely amount of accumulated snow compared with long-term averages.