Almost nobody believes forecasts about the end of the war: distrust reaches 87.6%

Forecasts about when the war will end command extremely little trust among Ukrainians surveyed. 87.6% of participants in the Active Group study said they rather or completely distrust them.

The details

0.9% of respondents trust such forecasts completely and a further 2.7% rather trust them. The combined share of those who trust them is 3.6%.

30.4% rather distrust the forecasts and 57.2% distrust them completely — together 87.6%. Another 8.9% were undecided.

The published categories add up to 100.1%. This is not an extra group of respondents but the ordinary effect of rounding figures to one decimal place.

Why it matters

The poll does not show expectations about a specific end date for the war; it shows the level of trust in those who forecast such dates. No conclusion can be drawn from this data about when Ukrainians think the war will end.

Nor does the high level of distrust prove that any individual forecast is wrong. It records the audience's attitude to the genre of date-forecasting itself, in a war where military and diplomatic circumstances change quickly.

Source

Active Group, published on 31 August 2026. Study: "Pulse of the Week: 24–28 August 2026".

The survey was carried out by Active Group using the SunFlower Sociology online panel. Method — self-completed questionnaires by citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and over. Sample — 1,000 questionnaires, representative by age, sex and region of Ukraine. Data collected on 29 August 2026. The stated theoretical margin of error at a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 3.1%.